正好看到nyt这些，原文的网址放最后：As an architect of the Oct. 7 attacks, Mr. Sinwar masterminded a strategy that he knew would provoke a ferocious Israeli response. But in Hamas’s calculus, the deaths of many Palestinian civilians — who do not have access to Hamas’s subterranean tunnels — were the necessary cost of upending the status quo with Israel.
American and Israeli intelligence agencies have spent months assessing Mr. Sinwar’s motivations, according to people briefed on the intelligence. Analysts in both the United States and Israel believe that Mr. Sinwar is primarily motivated by a desire to take revenge on Israel and weaken it. The well-being of the Palestinian people or the establishment of a Palestinian state, the intelligence analysts say, appears to be secondary.
They believe that Mr. Sinwar has timed the release of videos of some Israeli hostages in order to spur public outrage at Mr. Netanyahu during crucial phases of the cease-fire talks.
If Mr. Netanyahu has been accused of dragging out the fighting for personal benefit, so, too, has his archenemy, Mr. Sinwar.
Israeli and U.S. intelligence officers say that Mr. Sinwar’s strategy is to keep the war going for as long as it takes to shred Israel’s international reputation and to damage its relationship with its primary ally, the United States. As Israel faced intense pressure to avoid launching an operation in Rafah, Hamas fired rockets last Sunday from Rafah toward a nearby border crossing, killing four Israeli soldiers.
Hamas and its allies deny that either Mr. Sinwar or the movement is trying to leverage further Palestinian suffering.
“Hamas’s strategy is to stop the war right now,” said Ahmed Yousef, a Hamas veteran based in Rafah. “To stop the genocide and the killing of the Palestinian people.”
While the outside leadership has at times been more willing to compromise, Mr. Sinwar is less ready to concede ground to the Israeli negotiators, in part, because he knows that he is likely to be killed whether or not the war ends, the official said.
Even if negotiators seal a cease-fire deal, Israel is likely to pursue Mr. Sinwar for the rest of his life, the official said.
Hamas members have projected an image of unity, downplaying Mr. Sinwar’s personal role in decision-making and maintaining that Hamas’s elected leadership collectively determines the movement’s trajectory.
Some say that if Mr. Sinwar has played a bigger role during this war, it is mostly because of his position: As the leader of Hamas in Gaza, Mr. Sinwar has greater say, though not the final call, according to Mousa Abu Marzouk, a senior Hamas official based in Qatar.
Still, there is something unusual about Mr. Sinwar’s force of personality, according to Mr. al-Awawdeh, his friend from prison. Other leaders might not have instigated the Oct. 7 attack, preferring to focus on technocratic matters of governance, Mr. al-Awawdeh said.
“If someone else had been in his position, things might have gone in a calmer way,” he said.
